Crisis Brewing? Ag Productivity Slowdown Threatens World's Ability To Feed Itself, Says New Report

By Jon Adamy, Michigan Farm News. Reprinted with permission. (November 12, 2024)

Think agriculture is getting more productive? Think again, according to new data from Virginia Tech.

Using a metric known as total factor productivity (TFP) — which increases either by generating more output with the same or fewer resources, or by maintaining the same output while using fewer resources — Virginia Tech researchers said a target of 2% annual growth is needed to meet growing demand for ag products by 2050.

The problem is: Since 2013, TFP has fallen to just 0.7%, and the U.S. is doing even worse, posting an averaging of -0.21% TFP annually from 2013-22.

For context, from 2001-10, global productivity growth in ag was 1.9% annually.

“This dramatic slowdown will prevent us from reaching our agricultural production and sustainability goals by 2050, with potentially dire impacts on food and nutrition security, unless we reverse this trend,” said Tom Thompson, the report’s executive editor and associate dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at Virginia Tech.

Equally concerning, a gap between the development of innovations and their delivery to producers dubbed the “valley of death” presents a significant threat to achieving agricultural TFP goals, as outlined in Virginia Tech’s recent Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report.

The report attributes the downturn, in part, to a reduction in public funding for agricultural research and development.

Researchers noted that TFP growth in ag has historically been driven by research, development, and the dissemination of technologies — such as improved crop and animal genetics and precision farming tools — and sharing the knowledge to use those tools.

“While research and development (R&D) remains a vital driver of TFP growth, it is clear that public and private R&D alone will not suffice,” the GAP Report stated.

With the United Nations projecting a global population of 9.6 billion by 2050, there are serious questions about how to meet food demands while also ensuring producer profitability, driving ag-led economic growth, enhancing food security and conserving environmental resources.

While the U.S. continues to lag the global TFP growth average, some areas are faring better.

The GAP Report found that South Asia has emerged as a global leader in average annual total factor productivity growth during 2013-22 through significant public and private investment in research and development, mechanization adoption, and information, communication, and technology innovations. The region experienced 1.4% annual growth, outpacing other regions, including North America. 

“Despite the scale of the challenge, the message of this year’s report is not pessimistic,” wrote Robert Bertram, chief scientist at the U. S. Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Resilience, Environment and Food Security.

“To the contrary, it highlights several positive prospects where a change in course toward robust and more environmentally friendly growth could be achieved.”

The report suggested that bundling productivity tools with distribution mechanisms, socio-economic tools, and policy levers could power productivity growth during the next decade by “creating bridges across the valley of death that are tailored to local contexts and cultures.”

Recommended priorities to drive ag productivity growth outlined in the report include investing in agricultural innovation systems, expanding robust and resilient market access, strengthening regional and global trade, improving the quality of outputs and reducing output loss, and cultivating partnerships and cooperation.

Read the full report here.