Top Commodities Analyst Weighs in on Huge Shift in Market
- Michelle Pelletier Marshall
- 1 day ago
- 6 min read
By Michelle Pelletier Marshall, Women in Agribusiness Media (April 22, 2025)
Karen Braun has been a market analyst/columnist with Thomson Reuters for nearly a decade and has built an admirable reputation for being a global expert and strong voice in international ag circles. She also has witnessed a myriad of cycles of commodities trading imbalances and readjustments; but safe to say, none that are changing the landscape of ag as much as the policies of the current U.S. administration.
And we, as the Women in Agribusiness audience, will reap the rewards of having a bird’s eye view into this ever-fluctuating domain of push and pull through Braun’s extensive ag market knowledge and experience. All eyes and ears will be on this topic for months to come, and Braun will keep the up-to-the-minute developments and disruptions under her watch before taking center stage as the keynote speaker to present “U.S. Ag Commodities Market Outlook” at the 14th annual WIA Summit this fall in Orlando, Sept. 22 -24.
The critical session will focus on key trends in U.S. and global agricultural commodity markets, including price movements and supply-demand dynamics in soybeans, corn, wheat, etc. – with special attention paid to new regulations and the influence of geopolitical forces, as well as weather and ever-changing trade policies.
As an introduction to this dynamic session at the Summit, WIA Today sat down with Braun to better understand the variables and possibilities sparked by the recent policies that are upending the commodities market and stretching the parameters of market equilibrium as we know them to be.
Welcome Karen and thank you for joining us.
1). First, tell us a bit about the path that led you to agriculture and an interest in the commodities sector, and your key experiences therein.
Braun: I never set out to work for a major news agency or in agriculture at all, so it’s funny how things happen. But the columnist role really works for me because it allows me to draw on my strong analytical background, breaking down complicated data sets and market concepts into a format that is easily digestible for all. I have bachelor’s and master’s degrees in meteorology, but government forecasting, television and academia were not for me. I wanted something where I could analyze and convey the impacts of weather on markets and society. Agriculture is that perfect blend! I sort of fell into it in April 2012 when I started as a crop production analyst with zero prior agriculture experience. Ten years ago, my Reuters bosses recognized my knack for communicating complex ideas with the industry, so they brought me on as a columnist in October 2015 and the rest is history! Most of the content I share and talk about today are all things I learned by myself on the job as a columnist, so it really has been a whirlwind, and I still very much consider myself to be learning every day. Some of my favorite experiences have been doing crop tours in Ukraine, Russia and France, as well as countless corn and soybean tours across the U.S. Corn Belt. I have spoken to audiences on four continents, and I absolutely love to travel and learn more about how agricultural markets vary across the globe. Nothing replaces actually going there and seeing it!
2). In a market that is historically difficult to predict, how much uncertainty has the current vacillating trade conditions, such as sweeping tariffs across the globe, brought to the equation?
Braun: The uncertainty kicks things up several notches! As you mentioned, these markets are already tough to predict without the additional and unprecedented unknowns. But it is during the most volatile of times where taking a step back, reviewing the larger picture and resorting to basic supply and demand principles is most helpful. Gathering as many facts and background knowledge as possible helps to digest fast-moving headlines much more effectively. That is essentially what I do in my everyday work: bring context to the news.
3). You noted in an article last month that U.S. agricultural and related imports were worth a record $263 billion in 2024. How has that shifted this year?
Braun: In the first two months of 2025, U.S. ag and related imports were up 10 percent by value over the same period last year, while imports were down 8 percent. However, trade imbalances are not inherently negative. You have to look at the prices of commodities the U.S. typically imports versus those it exports. Also, when it comes to grain and livestock products, the simple fact is that U.S. producers have more global competition than ever. For example, the United States accounted for 59 percent of global corn exports in the late 2000s, but that share has dropped to 31 percent in recent years, especially with the rise of Brazil. Sometimes it can take markets a long time to adjust to and accept these new norms.
4). Soybeans are overwhelmingly the single largest U.S. agricultural export, followed by corn and beef. How are these commodity sales faring amid the trade turmoil, and what have been the short-term impacts on trade? Is a long-term outlook foreseeable?
Braun: I don’t think we have seen any impacts on U.S. export sales amid the global trade tensions, at least not yet. U.S. beef is expensive and Americans have not loosened their grip on demand, so that tightens the export market. U.S. corn exports are going phenomenally so far – should be the second-best year on record.
Soybean exports are not faring as well, but that has been the expectation coming into this year. The United States has reduced soy exports in favor of increased domestic demand, and a ballooning Brazilian crop has curbed U.S. importance in the Chinese market. There are not, however, a lot of U.S. grain and oilseed sales on the books right now for 2025/26. That is not necessarily worrisome yet, but we will want to keep an eye on that as we head into summer. The United States should be able to retain its top corn exporter crown if farmers this summer grow a decent crop. That is absolutely the United States’ best shot at maintaining market share, even though it doesn’t always lead to the flashy summer rallies.
5). What is the expected impact of the current trade situation upon farmers’ planting plans for 2025 and 2026? Have you seen changes in crop type and configuration?
Braun: No U.S. farmer that I have spoken with has changed any of their planting plans for 2025 because of the trade war fears. For most farmers, corn holds the most profitability potential by a long shot, and this was true before, during and after the tariff drama unfolded. Plus, any potential longer-term impact on farm inputs or crop prices due to the trade tensions would not show up in the market yet. But those could become relevant heading into the 2026 crop year.
6). Women in Agribusiness represents women across the ag supply chain who are pushing to excel in leadership, learning and collaboration. How has your journey to this height in journalism played out, and what advice would you give to women climbing towards their goals in the ag sector?
Braun: The top piece of advice would be to find your strengths and lean into them. You never know where this crazy journey of life might take you, and sometimes the vision is not so clear. That’s okay. Everyone has something that lights a fire within them. So find what you do well and what fulfills you most – no matter how big or small that may be - and set out to do it better than it’s ever been done before! Always keep an open mind, be willing to learn new things and never be afraid to ask for help or advice. Advocate for yourself. Build and keep close a strong team of cheerleaders, i.e. those in the space who know you well and can vouch for your talent and exchange ideas with you. Don’t engage with those who act to tear you down - shut out and rise above pettiness. Staying true to yourself and your beliefs is the very best path forward.
Hear more from Braun as she opens the 2025 Women in Agribusiness Summit in Orlando, Florida, September 22-24. Learn more about the event here.
ABOUT KAREN BRAUN
As a columnist for Reuters, Braun focuses on all aspects of global agriculture markets with a primary focus in grains and oilseeds. She comes from a strong science background and has a passion for data, statistics, and charts, and uses them to add context to whatever hot topic is driving the markets. Braun holds degrees in meteorology and sometimes features that expertise in her columns. Follow her on X @kannbwx for her market insights.
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