Wake-Up Call: The Unexpected Disruptors About to Transform the Food Industry
By Mary Shelman & AJ Shelman[1] (March 11, 2025)
Forget what you think you know about consumer behavior. For decades, everyone from food manufacturers to health professionals to environmental advocates has tried to change what people eat, but the reality is that taste, price, and convenience reign supreme. We see this every day in what people actually buy, not just what they say they want. These core motivators are deeply ingrained, making it incredibly difficult to introduce new products or behaviors that stray from them.
Think plant-based burgers, vertical farms, blockchain-tracked ingredients... Despite waves of innovation and hype, none of it has truly moved the needle on mass-market eating habits. The last real shift was driven by the microwave oven in the 1970s, which led to a proliferation of convenient frozen meal and snack options. The lesson?
Changing what people eat is hard. Behavior and preferences are sticky, rooted in biology and psychology. This is one of the things that makes the Food & Ag industry so challenging.
But what if we could reprogram those fundamentals? That's where two emerging forces – GLP-1 weight loss drugs and artificial intelligence – could completely rewrite the rules of the game. Unlike anything that's come before, these technologies have the potential to disrupt the very foundation of how we make food choices, leading to fewer calories consumed and a shift towards healthier options. These shifts at the individual level have the potential to impact the entire agri-food value chain, with implications for everyone from consumers to farmers.
GLP-1 Drugs: Chemistry Beats Willpower at Scale
The battle between biology and willpower has defined human eating habits for millennia. Our brains are wired to crave calories, making it incredibly difficult to change how we eat, no matter how much nutrition science or willpower-based dieting tries to intervene. But GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, are changing the rules of the game.
Originally developed for Type 2 diabetes, these medications have proven remarkably effective for weight loss, helping users shed an average of 40 to 50 pounds. More importantly, they don’t just reduce calorie intake—they fundamentally alter appetite at the chemical level, suppressing cravings for the very foods that have long dominated the American diet.
Unlike diet fads that come and go, GLP-1 drugs work inside the body's metabolic system, overriding the psychological and hormonal signals that drive overconsumption. They regulate blood sugar, slow digestion, and enhance feelings of fullness, reducing not just how much people eat, but what they desire. With adoption rapidly expanding—already at 1 in 8 Americans having used GLP-1 drugs, and with 30-35% expressing interest—the effects on food demand are poised to be the most significant shift in eating habits in modern history.
Early data shows a significant impact on food demand, with household spending declining by 5-10 percent among GLP-1 users.[2] The biggest reductions are in categories like snack foods, desserts, and sugary beverages, as these drugs suppress cravings for ultra-processed, high-carb, and high-fat options. Meanwhile, household spending increased on certain high-protein categories like yogurt, meat snacks, and nutrition bars, likely reflecting doctors' recommendations to prioritize protein intake and counteract potential muscle loss. This shift in purchasing patterns, along with the observed reduction in unhealthy food purchases, underscores how GLP-1 drugs are already changing what people buy and eat. In fact, Danone recently reported a 4.2 percent volume increase in Q4 2024, driven by strong momentum in North America, particularly in high-protein categories, which may be an early indicator of GLP-1's impact on the market.
If adoption scales further, the implications could be massive. With two-thirds of Americans currently overweight, imagine if GLP-1 drug penetration reaches 40 percent of the population. If those users eat an average of 20-30 percent fewer calories, that translates to a 10 percent reduction in overall calorie consumption—with the biggest impact on ultra-processed, high-fat, and high-sugar products.
The downstream effects will ripple across the industry. We could see declining revenues in junk food and quick-service restaurants (QSRs), alongside shifting demand for key agricultural commodities like corn syrup, wheat, and seed oils. Unlike past diet fads that faded as willpower waned, this is a structural shift in consumption—one that could permanently alter the food landscape.
For major food manufacturers, the question becomes: can they withstand a 10 percent+ decline in volume for some of their biggest categories and best-selling products? Can brands built on snack foods, sugary beverages, and processed convenience items pivot fast enough to stay relevant? Grocery retailers, already operating on razor-thin profit margins, will face similar challenges if overall food purchases decline. Will they consolidate to maintain profitability? Or will entirely new retail formats emerge? QSRs, which rely on frequent, high-calorie purchases, could be among the hardest hit. A 5-10 percent drop in consumer spending on fast food could force major brands to completely rethink their menus and pricing strategies. Even farmers and commodity producers will feel the impact. Will falling demand for wheat, corn syrup, and seed oils be balanced out by a potential increase in demand for protein? These are open questions with no easy answers.
One thing is clear: the old assumptions about food demand may no longer hold true. The industry needs to be prepared for a world where consumers simply eat less—and potentially very different foods.
AI: Is Your Customer Actually a Robot?
AI is poised to become the invisible hand guiding our food choices. Just as smartphones seamlessly integrated themselves into daily life, changing how we communicate, shop, and navigate the world, AI will embed itself into the systems that govern what we eat. But unlike previous innovations in food that required persuading consumers to change their habits, AI won’t rely on marketing or willpower. Instead, it will automate many of our food choices in ways that are incredibly convenient and highly personalized to our taste and price preferences. This shift will fundamentally alter what we eat, who makes those decisions, and how food is purchased, marking one of the most profound disruptions the food industry has ever faced.
Consider how AI could revolutionize food selection. Today, many of us struggle with meal planning, balancing family member preferences, dietary restrictions, health goals, and time and budget constraints. AI will solve this by running complex multivariable optimizations that humans simply cannot sustain—factoring in everything from a household’s eating habits and real-time health data to grocery store prices and product availability to generate a weekly meal plan with a shopping list optimized for cost and nutritional value. And it will never get stressed, bored, or tired! As part of this optimization, it might suggest meals and ingredients you'd never considered, much like how TikTok or Netflix recommendations surface unexpected content that people end up liking. Just as AI will influence which food is selected for a household, it may also dictate which restaurants thrive based on optimized recommendations.
This shift will likely have a significant impact on diet composition and quality. The problem with nutrition today isn’t a lack of information—it’s the psychological, behavioral, and biological barriers that prevent healthier choices. AI doesn’t struggle with willpower, cravings, or convenience-driven shortcuts. AI also could unlock a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between food and our overall health and well-being, paving the way for truly personalized dietary recommendations. If its optimization function prioritizes health as part of a user’s goals (assuming the user has asked it to factor this in), even marginally different food choices at the individual level may scale up to significant shifts in the food landscape–and a healthier population overall.
But this raises a critical question: who will be making the food decisions in this AI-powered future? As AI takes control of grocery shopping and meal planning, the person influencing food purchases may not be the same as before. Today, women drive the majority of grocery shopping—68 percent of women in multi-person households identify as the primary food shopper. However, men tend to adopt AI at higher rates in comparable professions. Will the person providing AI input be different from the one who traditionally did the shopping?
Currently, only about one in five consumers shop for groceries online, but as AI eliminates the friction of selecting and ordering food, that number is likely to rise. Historically, women have handled food shopping largely because of household labor dynamics, but if AI simplifies the process to the point where it requires only minimal input, this long-standing gender role may shift. AI could create a world where the "shopper" isn’t a person at all—it’s an AI agent trained on household preferences. This shift could alter not just household decision-making but also brand loyalty and the way food companies market their products.
Beyond reshaping food choices and decision-makers, AI will also transform the mechanics of food shopping. Today, online grocery shopping is still cumbersome—users must manually sift through digital aisles, select products, and check out. AI will fix this, functioning as an autonomous personal shopper that selects, orders, and even arranges delivery or pickup. The process will resemble an advanced, AI-driven version of Walmart Click & Collect, where the AI does the "clicking" instead of the consumer.
At the same time, AI will be ruthless in its pursuit of value, continuously hunting for the best prices, discounts, and alternatives without fatigue. Unlike human shoppers, who may give up after scanning a few options, AI will persist, giving brands and food retailers little room for error in their pricing and promotion strategies. An early example of this is the "Inflation Cookbook" in Canada, an AI-powered tool that analyzes real-time grocery prices of 400+ ingredients across multiple retailers to uncover the biggest price drops of the week and then generates chef-inspired, nutritionist-vetted recipes that help consumers optimize their grocery budget.
For the food industry, this marks a seismic shift: AI—not the individual consumer—will increasingly become the real customer. Food brands and retailers will need to adapt to a world where appealing to human emotions and brand recognition matters less than winning over an algorithm’s optimization criteria.
The Great Food Reset: Are You Ready?
Forget the old rules of the food game. GLP-1 drugs are already changing how we eat, and AI is poised to disrupt the industry even further. Unlike past attempts to shift consumer behavior through education or marketing, these new forces don't rely on convincing people to change. Instead, they change the underlying mechanics of food decision-making—one through biology, the other through automation. While the full impact of AI will depend on its widespread adoption across various applications, the combination of these two forces could create a seismic shift in the food landscape.
For the first time in decades, we may be on the brink of a true shift in food consumption. The question is no longer whether consumers will change their eating habits—it's whether the food industry can keep up. Will legacy brands adapt to a world where people eat less and prioritize different foods? Will they reformulate products, acquire new brands, or even partner with pharmaceutical companies? Will new entrants emerge with AI-powered meal planning services or personalized nutrition solutions tailored to GLP-1 users? And how will farmers and ingredient suppliers adapt to shifting demand for different commodities?
What’s clear is that these forces will reshape the food landscape in ways few could have predicted. The companies that succeed will be those that proactively craft a winning strategy based on these emerging trends. From established food manufacturers to agile startups, every player in the food value chain needs to reassess their strategic direction, considering the implications of GLP-1 and AI for their specific businesses. This is a wake-up call for the entire industry: it's time to rethink everything we thought we knew about consumers and the future of food.
ENDNOTES:
[1] Mary Shelman is the founder of Shelman Group, a boutique strategy consulting firm. AJ Shelman is a partner at Shelman Group. The authors can be reached at mary@shelman.co.
[2] Hristakeva, Sylvia and Liaukonyte, Jura and Feler, Leo, The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Demand (December 27, 2024). Cornell SC Johnson College of Business Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5073929 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5073929
ABOUT MARY SHELMAN
Mary Shelman is a driving force in global agribusiness, guiding organizations toward a sustainable and innovative future. Formerly the director of Harvard Business School’s Agribusiness Program, she now leads Shelman Group, providing strategic consulting to the ag and food value chain. Shelman leverages her broad industry knowledge and unique insights into global trends to help clients craft and execute winning strategies. A Kentucky native where she still owns a farm, Shelman holds a Harvard MBA and brings a passion for improving the food system from farm to fork. She actively contributes to the agribusiness community by serving on company boards – like the Women in Agribusiness (WIA) Advisory Board -- judgin agtech competitions, and frequently speaking on the future of food and ag at industry events. She has been involved with WIA since its founding, co-chairing the inaugural WIA Summit in New Orleans in 2012.
Shelman Group is a boutique strategy consulting firm dedicated to helping clients create and execute winning strategies in the complex Food & Agribusiness industry. We combine deep expertise in strategy with a broad view & unique insights into the global Food & Agribusiness value chain to help clients succeed.
